January 18th is Marion Barry Day

January 18th is an inauspicious day for the citizens of the District of Columbia.  It marks the date of the arrest of Mayor Marion S. Barry, Jr. in a drug sting for possession of crack cocaine.  This year is the twentieth anniversary since the former Mayor-For-Life spoke his most famous of utterances, who has continued to serve in DC public office despite his ongoing run-ins with the law.

Taxis Parking In The Not-Even-Finished Bike Lane

Though I don’t think construction is completed yet, the new contra-flow bike lane on 15th Street is looking pretty good.  Except for the cars parking in it. I snapped this photo just south of Rhode Island Avenue, with a cabbie parked in what is a clearly marked bike lane.  Worse, half a block north there was a postal worker doing the exact same thing!

The excuse both times was that “it wasn’t open yet.”  Okay, then if the bike lane is still under construction, why are they parking in a construction zone?!

I fear this portends problems for the future of this bike lane.  The flippant attitude of DC drivers towards bike lanes is well documented, but this is just ridiculous.  A solution needs to be found.  Perhaps some sort of partial curb or pylon preventing cars from backing into the bike lane?  Or maybe some caltrops?

What do you think would help?

(cross-posted to my ANC blog)

Why I’ll Be Getting The Swine Flu Vaccine

With the start of the flu season and the advent of a vaccine, swine flu is coming back into the spotlight. Rather than covering the pandemic itself and disseminating widely useful, factual information, the media is covering the controversy over the vaccine that has been stirred up by hand-waving critics. I highly recommend the Effect Measure blog as a fantastic source of science-based discussion of the Swine Flu Pandemic. The contrast between the reasoned analyses of trained epidemiologists and the frenzied hype of news anchors or the fear-mongering of the anti-vaccination woo-heads could not be greater.  The short version? The swine flu is a big deal and we need to care about it and take reasonable steps to prevent it, but we don’t need to freak out: the virus isn’t going to wipe a billion people from the planet and the vaccination works and doesn’t make you sick.

A recent post explores the editor’s reasons for getting vaccinated, both for swine flu and the seasonal flu.  It’s a good article, with graphs and charts, and filled with words like “trivalent vaccine” and “cross-reactivity”.  And though it inspired me to write this particular post, I found its reasoning a bit over-thought for those of us not studying infectious disease for a living.

So, why would I want to get the flu vaccine?  There’s lots of good reasons.  For example, based on the experiences of the southern hemisphere (who are just now coming out of their flu season), it appears that there were 15x more people admitted to the ICU for flu cases than in previous years.  Or that the swine flu is more greatly affecting people in my age group than the people the seasonal flu affects.  Or that the virus is hitting close to home now, with local blogger Mr. 14thandyou writing this morning that he came down with it, saying:

Whatever the news reports may say about this thing not being as bad as it has been made out to be: they lie. The H1N1 flu is awful; I think this was the sickest I have been since I was in grade school. It’s the kind of flu that makes raising a glass of water to your mouth and successfully taking a sip a feat of superhuman strength.

But none of that is really why I’ll get the swine flu vaccine.  (And the seasonal vaccine, while I’m at it.  I get that every year.)  So, why will I get vaccinated?  It’s quite simple, really:  I just don’t want the flu – swine or otherwise.

You see, getting sick with the flu will mean at least several days where I’ll be unable to work.  I am self-employed, and I get paid when I work.  Conversely, when I don’t work I don’t get paid.  I bear a direct economic cost if I get sick.  And that’s not even to mention the fact that getting the flu sucks even when it’s not the pandemic variety – aches, pains, chills, sweats, vomiting, and diarrhea are really not what I enjoy doing on my days off.  So if a shot in the arm, which has been shown to be reasonably effective, might protect me – well, where do I sign up!

Confession of a Credit Card Deadbeat

The roiling economy has uncomfortably squeezed the profits of various huge financial mega-corporations.  As the bottom-of-the-barrel customers are no longer able to honor their obligations, the fatty underbelly of fees and interest which the poorest consumers have struggled to pay is suddenly looking a little lean.  To make back their profits, the credit card companies are looking to eliminate the cash-back and frequent flier miles, reduce or rescind interest grace periods, and reinstate annual fees.

There’s no way this could backfire.

An amusingly twisted word in the credit card parlance is “deadbeats”.  Counter-intuitively, these companies use that term to describe their very best customers.  Do you pay your card off in full every month?  Do you rarely, if ever, accrue interest or late fees?  Do you regularly cash in your frequent flier miles and cash-back bonus?  Yes?  Well, since you don’t make much money for them, they don’t like you.  They tolerate you, but you’re gaming the system, getting a free ride.  You’re a deadbeat.

It’s nice to know what they really think of you.

Don’t weep, though.  They still make plenty of money from customers like me.  Every time we use our cards, the merchant is charged hefty fees for privilege of accepting our card of choice.  We don’t pay that directly, but we pay it indirectly through higher prices in restaurants, shops, and online.

But it’s not enough, so they’re coming after the good customers.  Ironically, they’re coming after the customers who need them least. I admit it: I am a credit card deadbeat.  And if I suddenly have to pay an annual fee or lose my grace period, what incentive do I have just to not carry cash?  I will happily abandon the credit card companies, tossing their aggressive advertising, obnoxious phone calls, and invasive behavior tracking right along with their annual fees and interest rates.  And good riddance!

And, assuming I’m not the only one happy to return to legal tender, then the credit card companies are sowing the seeds of their own doom.  As their best customers jump ship, their balance sheets will be left a ghetto of poor credit customers.  As losses mount from those who can no longer pay, the ratio of good assets to bad will finally topple the once-mighty giants of consumer finance.

Stack of Credit Cards modified from the original Too Much Credit by Andres Rueda under a CC Attribution 2.0 Generic license.

Caesar is Dead

Amid the wailing and gnashing of teeth that has accompanied this financial meltdown, one might easily overlook or dismiss as rote the testimony before Congress of the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan. But mark my words: Greenspan’s testimony yesterday is the single most important thing that will happen in this entire fiasco.

Why such strong words? Because this marks the unequivocal end of perhaps the single most defining U.S. policy of the past two generations: unrestrained ideological free-market capitalism. For the past several decades, our federal fiscal policy has been driven largely by the notion that government meddling decreases a market’s ability to most efficiently move capital, and thus hobbling economic growth. Beginning with the Reagan Administration, our regulatory agencies have been systematically stripped of their oversight powers through legislation and executive policies. The idea was that the market would police itself, and regulate itself, better than any government ever could. Despite some bumps and glitches, it seemed to be working, and Alan Greenspan (who was appointed the chairman of the Federal Reserve by President Reagan) was in the middle of it all.

Then the credit markets collapsed, with the potential to take down the entire world economy, and suddenly the truth is painfully obvious: Zero regulation is not the best regulation. Alan Greenspan is an epic heavyweight in the minds of politicians, policy-makers, and the public, and he deserves accolades for abandoning his once-staunch policy theory – to say nothing of his professional legacy and near-mythical status – in the face of evidence to its contrary. But that this great thinker, the maestro of the single longest continual expansion of the U.S. economy, can sit before Congress and say in plain words “I was wrong,” means that no politician or policy-maker can continue to espouse those same policies of deregulation and be taken seriously.

The era of unregulated markets is over. Perhaps it was already dying, but Mr. Greenspan plunged the final dagger into its heart yesterday, ensuring the deed was done. Et tu, Alan?

I’m Running For ANC

I’m running for ANC 2F03!

This morning, I picked up my petitions for inclusion on the ballot. Soon (probably tonight), I will start collecting signatures in my Single-Member District. If you live in ANC 2F03 and you see a guy with a funny hat carrying a clipboard with pink pages on it, please take a moment to stop and sign. You must be a registered voter, but that’s it!

Chris Dyer, the current and long-serving commissioner for ANC 2F03, announced at the last ANC meeting that he would not be seeking reelection this fall. He will be missed. And though it will be impossible to fill his shoes, I am personally looking forward to the opportunity to fight for our neighborhood as best as I can.

I guess I have to get on the ballot first, though. Wish me luck!

DTV Transition

Oh no! The transition from analog television to digital television is flawed, and civil rights groups are all mad! Their plan includes:

• Organize rapid response teams to help people after February 17th;
• Make the converter boxes more accessible and affordable; and
• Put more money and presence into the project.

If we fail to do anything, then “23 million households will wake up [on February 18th] either completely or partially unready to receive digital broadcast television service”.

Oh no! It’s horrible! People without television? What will we ever do? For fuck’s sake – are we so dependent on television in this country? Is society really going to collapse if 23 million people miss their re-runs of My Name Is Earl?

Here’s an idea: How about we take the almost $1 billion subsidizing converter boxes and spend it on funding for our public libraries instead.

Four Dollar Gas

The Times is wrong. Not all Americans are hating every minute of it. Heather walked outside a few of days ago, and noted that gas was $3.99 at the BP on 13th and N. The next morning, she was thrilled to find it was $4.15.

Why are we so happy? Because we bet against cars a long time ago. The higher the price gets, the more people will realize they don’t really need their cars, and the fewer cars on the road means better air quality, less pollution, safer streets, and continued vitalization of the city – just to name a few. That’s not even to mention fewer parking disputes.

So, yeah. Some of us are enjoying the high gas prices, because we know it signals a major transition in the wasteful way the majority of Americans live their lives.

Finally The End of Overdraft Rape?

I hate debit cards. With a passion. Your money is in your bank account for less time, thus earning less interest. Also, they don’t come with the same level of consumer protection and fraud liability as the good old-fashioned credit card. To boot, they are a huge money-making scheme for the banks. Their popularity has been artificially inflated with clever marketing campaigns that tout their one supposed upside: You can’t spend more than you have in your account.

Except it’s bullshit. If you’re a smart person, you keep as little money in your checking account as possible, since it bears little or no interest. Unfortunately, with debit cards, it’s really easy to lost track of how much you should keep in your account. So you drain your account – but instead of your card being denied, the bank “helpfully” transfers money from your savings account, under the guise of “overdraft protection”. And they charge your a huge fee – like $20. So your morning latte just cost you $23.57! Great!

Now, of course, they have to notify you of your overdraft. But what notification scheme do they choose? Oh, right, the United States Postal Service. They send you a letter, telling you that you’ve just overdrawn your account, and that they’ve taken their fee, and you should really transfer some more money into your account. But, being the postal service, the letter doesn’t get there for three days; and, as a normal American, you buy a lot more stuff during that three days of ignorance.

You buy lunch: $7. Overdraft. Another $20 fee.

You pop in for a beer at the pub: $4.50. Overdraft. Another $20 fee.

You swing by the store for a gallon of milk: $2.69. Overdraft. Another $20 fee.

And so on – for three more days!

The end result? A little screw-up turns into hundreds of dollars in bank fees and a dozen letters in your mailbox. Oh, did I mention they won’t let you opt-out of this service? Hot damn those banks sure are helpful!

Hopefully, it’s about to change. Buried near the end of this NYT article on impending changes to credit card regulation is this tiny little gem:

The proposal also seeks to regulate overdraft protection, banning companies from assessing a fee unless the customer chooses not to opt out of that service.

One can only hope.

Suicide Rates Among Veterans

Matt over at Machination wrote a little blurb on veteran suicide rates. I was immediately suspicious as to whether the statistic of 6,256 suicides in 2005 was actually meaningful, or whether it was just an attempt to play shock-the-public. Suicide is much more common than people generally realize. More people commit suicide every year than are murdered. (And if that isn’t an indication of how screwed up civilization is, I don’t know what is. But I digress.)

Let’s take a few minutes with Google and a calculator: First, let’s pull the national suicide rate for 2005: 89.4 suicides per day. If there were 6,256 veteran suicides in 2005, then that means there was 17.1 suicides per day among that group. Divide that by 89.4 suicides per day for the general population, and it turns out that 19.2% of the suicides every day are by people formerly serving in the military. Good to know. Now, is that actually significant?

If all other things are equal, then we would expect veterans to commit suicide at a rate proportional to their representation in the population. So let’s get the total U.S. population of veterans: 26,403,703 people. That means veterans make up about 9.3% of the U.S. population.

And there you have it: Veterans make up 9.3% of the population, but make up 19.2% of the suicides. The evidence suggests that veterans really are more likely to commit suicide than the general population.

Unfortunately, the only good numbers for the number of veterans are from the 2000 census, so we could be a bit off on our percentages; but it seems doubtful that the percentages changed enough from 2000 to 2005 to skew the results significantly. Also, it should be pointed out that the number of suicides per day reported above was only for 45 states. Since our other statistics are for the entire population, that means that unless the other five states had zero veteran suicides in 2005, then the percentage of suicides for veterans is actually greater than reported. So the problem is even worse than the numbers here show.

It looks like the numbers from CBS check out. It’s nice to see reporters checking their facts now and then. Good job!